It seems that screener's have started to leak online and this can only mean one thing: oscar season has officially begun!
So, I thought that I would do a "very,very,very early oscar picks" since it will be fun to pick out what will get nominated and win before the season goes into full swing. You know, the time when some movies become locks while others become disappointments.
Here are my picks as of right now. These are just based on early buzz and just gut feelings.
No Country For Old Men
There Will be Blood
Will Win: No Country For Old Men
Coen Bros. for No Country For Old Men
Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood
Mike Nichols for Charlie Wilson's War
Joe Wright for Atonement
Will Win: The Coen Brothers
Daniel Day Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd
Tom Hanks for Charlie Wilson's War
Denzel Washington for American Gangster
Josh Brolin for No Country For Old Men
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis for There Will be Blood (I feel like this the 1 of 4 early locks for this year)
Julie Christie for Away From Her
Ellen Page for Juno
Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose
Helena Bonham Carter for Sweeney Todd
Laura Linney for The Savages
Will Win: hmm this is a tough one but for right now I am going to go with Julie Christie winning oscar night meanwhile Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard win a lot of other awards from critics and etc...
Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem for No Country For Old Men
Cassey Afleck for The Assassination of Jesse James...
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilsons War
Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild
Alan Rickman for Sweeney Todd
Wild Card: I consider Foster to be a biggest wild card for 3:10 to Yuma but I wouldn't be surprised if Vincent Cassel (for Eastern Promises) Steve Zahn (for Rescue Dawn) or Sacha Baron Cohen (for Sweeney Todd) were to sneak in.
Will Win: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men (Lock number 2)
Best supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett for I'm Not there
Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
One of the girls from Atonement
I think this is all I can come up with right now. I consider this a blurry area for this year since there are not that many stand out performances that I am aware of. Plus, all the buzz surrounding this category seems to only be pointing at....
Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Lock number 3)
Best Original Screenplay - Diablo Cody for Juno (Lock Number 4)
Best Adatped Screenplay - Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will be Blood
Best Cinematography - Atonement or Assassination of Jesse James
Best Score - Jonny Greenwood for There Will Be Blood (I want to say that this is a lock due to the great buzz in every single review so far but it's still too early to tell)
Best documentary: King of Kong
Best animated Film: Ratatouille
I also expect Atonement and Sweeney Todd to pick up a lot of other nominations in the costume/set/editing/sound department.
So... there you have it. These are my early,early,early picks at the moment. I have yet to see basically any of these films but it will be fun seeing how some of these films will hold up against their buzz (Charlie Wilson's War/Atonement) while it will be another kind of fun to see some of these films come out of left field and become crticial darlings (Sweeney Todd/Juno)
I do have a couple of more early thoughts/predections
- I feel that if P.T.A. and the Coen Brothers end up going head to head for best director the academy will go with the Coen Bros and give P.T.A. an oscar for his screenplay.
- DDL will without a doubt win the oscar. The buzz sorrounding this performance is tremendous and DDL has proven to be a favorite to the academy.
- Sweeney Todd will surprise everyone. The buzz surrounding this film is also getting bigger and bigger by the week.
- Juno will be the love/hate film of the year.
- Zodiac will get no love but might get a surprise nomination in one of the main category's. I wouldn't be too shocked to see RDJ or Fincher become the ultimate wild card pick of the year.
Thats all for now.
EDIT: Here are some more little thoughts...
- There seems to be ZERO buzz surrounding any foreign films at all. The Orphanage is the only film that comes to mind but I attribute that films early buzz to Del Toro's name being attached to it.
- Lust, Caution (as much as I loved it) will get ZERO nominations. It just got too many mixed reactions to transfer over well to the academy. This will also,very sadly, not be the film that will break down the taboo surrounding films with an NC-17 rating. I guess Tony Leung's balls are too much to some people.
- Sorry, Woody Allen, better luck next year...
- I have a gut feeling that Before the Devil Knows Your Dead will become a dark horse in the upcoming months.
- Eastern Promises...dark horse? Maybe.
- I just noticed that I forgot to put Into the Wild in a lot of categories...oh well. I feel that this one, Rescue Dawn, and Michael Clayton have already come and gone too soon.